Yes.
Yes. Current population forecasts indicate that states like New York and California, which tend to elect Democrats, may lose congressional seats following apportionment, a process that redistributes the country’s 435 congressional districts every 10 years.
Apportionment relies on data collected by the U.S. census, with congressional seats reallocated to reflect shifts in state populations. While some traditionally Democratic states have lost residents in recent years, certain historically Republican states, like Texas and Florida, have gained residents. So-called “swing states” Arizona and North Carolina are projected to gain seats, while Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may lose seats.
Congressional apportionment projections for 2030 are based on 2024 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting partners with Gigafact to produce fact briefs, or quick-response fact checks, about trending claims relating to Arizona.
Sources
- Brennan Center, Big Changes Ahead for Voting Maps After Next Census
- The American Redistricting Project, 2030 Apportionment Forecast – 2024
- U.S. Census Bureau, Congressional Apportionment
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census: Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
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The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting is partnering with Gigafact to produce timely fact briefs, or quick-response fact checks, about trending claims relating to Arizona.
