No.
While the pending closure of two major oil refineries in California could drive gas prices up over the next few years, there is no indication that prices in the state will top $8 per gallon this summer. A recent analysis from a University of Southern California economist estimated that prices could reach the $8 threshold by the end of 2026, after the refineries close.
The two refineries currently account for about one-fifth of the crude oil the state turns into fuels like gasoline each day, according to the analysis. The closures could force California to import more oil from out of state or find other ways to reduce fuel demand.
California’s gas prices already exceed the national average by more than $1 given higher state and local taxes, required seasonal blends and environmental regulations.
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The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting partners with Gigafact to produce fact briefs, or quick-response fact checks, about trending claims relating to Arizona.
Sources
- Michael A. Mische, University of Southern California, Ensuring California’s Gasoline Security for the 21st Century
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery closures and rising consumption will reduce U.S. petroleum inventories in 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, California law and refinery closure reflect ongoing challenges for the state’s fuel market
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Why California usually pays more at the pump for gasoline
- State of California, California gas facts
- Gasoline Prices in California, California Energy Commission
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The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting is partnering with Gigafact to produce timely fact briefs, or quick-response fact checks, about trending claims relating to Arizona.
