In 2016, Arizona leaders set an ambitious goal: By 2030, 70% of high school graduates would continue their education after graduation, whether at a university, community college or trade school.
Despite a decade of initiatives and millions of dollars invested to boost postsecondary enrollment since then, the state’s rate has actually gone down. Only half of Arizona high school graduates continue their education within a year of graduation, a three-point drop since the effort began, according to data from Education Forward Arizona and the Center for the Future of Arizona.
The decline is widespread, affecting nearly every demographic group and most counties. It puts Arizona well below the national average, with the most recent federal data showing 63% of students enrolled in college within months of finishing high school.
With almost three-quarters of Arizona jobs expected to require some form of postsecondary education or training by 2031, researchers say lower enrollment rates could leave students with fewer economic opportunities—and make it harder for Arizona to build the skilled workforce state leaders have spent years trying to create.
For Jack Parrish, a recent graduate of Boulder Creek High School in Anthem, the decision to continue his education came down to a question he wasn’t sure how to answer: Was college worth the cost?
“I hear a lot of personal accounts of people who didn’t exactly regret college, but regretted taking out so many loans to go,” he said.
Though he once thought he would study engineering at Arizona State University, Parrish decided to spend at least one more year working in food service while considering his next move.
Education leaders say that kind of hesitation is becoming increasingly common as rapid changes in the job market, including the growing use of artificial intelligence, leave many unsure of whether a degree is worth the investment. Arizona students also face structural challenges beyond their control, including longstanding inequities in the state’s public education system.
The state has put at least $166 million toward boosting postsecondary enrollment since 2017, an AZCIR analysis of Arizona’s education spending shows, funding a range of programs backed by the Governor’s Office and largely administered by the Arizona Board of Regents and Department of Education. But those investments to expand dual enrollment, increase access to financial aid and launch the Arizona Promise Program—a scholarship that covers tuition and fees at the state’s public universities for qualifying low-income students—have done little to improve the state’s postsecondary enrollment trajectory.
Part of the problem, researchers and education leaders told AZCIR, is that Arizona has had neither sustained funding nor the centralized leadership needed to drive meaningful change. No single entity is responsible for coordinating the work and measuring whether it’s effective.
“There is growing concern that Arizona’s systemic design is not built to hold somebody accountable for this, or to even provide a clear signal of who should be in charge of solving this problem,” said Rich Nickel, president and CEO of Education Forward Arizona.
Compounding the challenges of the state’s decentralized approach, students and their families are struggling to justify the cost and time of a college degree or postsecondary credential, according to high school graduates, administrators and counselors who spoke with AZCIR. A Gallup survey from September found that just 35% of people thought a college education was “very important,” down from 75% in 2010.
That skepticism is increasingly translating into students’ decisions after graduation. A recent study from education research firm EAB found the share of students who chose not to attend college and cited cost of living as a primary concern jumped from 51% in 2025 to 67% this year. Researchers also found fewer students taking gap years and more prioritizing immediate employment, underscoring what they described as a growing emphasis on short-term economic needs.
“It’s not always clear what a college or university degree gets you,” said Patrick Denice, a researcher studying postsecondary enrollment at the University of Western Ontario. As relatively well-paying jobs remain available to high school graduates, he said, more young people are questioning whether additional education is worth delaying their entry into the workforce.
Jacob Dominguez, a recent graduate of Mountain Ridge High School in Glendale, was one of them. As a freshman, he imagined attending college and playing football. But injuries, academic struggles and the desire to make money pushed him in another direction.
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He considered a welding credential, but found that even trade school tuition could run into the tens of thousands of dollars. He opted to take a job at Discount Tire and was promoted to assistant manager shortly after graduation.
“If I can work my way up pretty fast in the past five, six-ish months, just imagine what I can do in, like, five years,” Dominguez said.
Still, the economic case for higher education remains strong, with college graduates about half as likely to be unemployed as peers with only a high school diploma. Typical earnings are 86% higher for bachelor’s degree holders, and median lifetime earnings are $1.2 million greater.
Research from the Helios Education Foundation estimated that increasing Arizona’s college-enrollment rate by 20% would also generate $1.82 billion in economic gains per high school cohort.
“Postsecondary enrollment is the key that unlocks all the locks,” Nickel said. “It is, again and again, the only proven method to transform somebody’s socioeconomic future.”
Education leaders and researchers agree there isn’t one “silver bullet” that can get more students to pursue education after high school. But half a dozen of them told AZCIR there is one important element Arizona lacks: coordination.
When the state adopted its 70% enrollment target in 2016, no lead agency was designated to oversee the initiative. It was envisioned as a collaboration between K-12 schools, public and private universities, community colleges and career and technical education institutions.
Today, the Governor’s Office, Board of Regents and Department of Education all support programs aimed at increasing postsecondary enrollment. In written statements to AZCIR, representatives highlighted work ranging from college and career planning to financial aid outreach and data collection. None, however, identified who is responsible for ensuring progress toward the state’s goal.
“A lot of places are putting a really good effort in, but it’s disjointed,” said Lydia Ross, a professor at ASU’s teaching college whose research focuses on postsecondary pathways. “We have all of these different arms trying to do things,” she said, but “they’re not working in tandem.”
In a statement, a spokesperson for Gov. Katie Hobbs said there is “no single ‘right’ model” for states to coordinate higher education efforts, and that the state’s investments in postsecondary enrollment are having a “real impact for real Arizonans.”
One of the state’s most significant interventions has been the Arizona Promise Program, launched in 2022. It covers tuition and fees after other aid has been applied at ASU, Northern Arizona University or the University of Arizona for students who meet academic requirements and display exceptional financial need.
Promise programs exist nationwide and are generally considered an effective way to improve enrollment, despite varying in design and scope. Programs in Pennsylvania, New York, Arkansas and Connecticut recorded enrollment jumps of 5% to 14% in the years following implementation.
Such gains have yet to materialize in Arizona, though the program has served a growing number of students each year it’s been offered. Undergraduate resident enrollment across the state’s three public universities increased by just 2.4% between the year before the scholarship’s implementation and fall 2025.
ABOR executive director Chad Sampson said the scholarship “is a strong access tool” that has shown encouraging results, but “right now, it’s largely an unfunded commitment.”
Universities have shouldered most of the Promise Program’s cost, contributing about $734 million between academic years 2022 and 2025 compared with $87.5 million from the state, according to Board of Regents data. Though lawmakers upped program funding to $54 million last year, this year’s budget slashed that by roughly a third.
A new community college promise program received just $3 million in startup funding last year and no additional money in the most recent budget.
“Culture change takes time, it takes sustained effort, and it takes additional revenue,” Sampson said.
He said the Board of Regents holds the state’s public universities accountable for expanding access but has no authority over other parts of Arizona’s education system.
“We’ve made strides where we can,” Sampson said. “In other areas that involve creating a stronger college-going culture in Arizona, we do everything we can to reach out to our partners.”
On the dual enrollment front, the state has put roughly $5.9 million toward helping students earn college credit while still in high school. Research from Helios found students who participate are more than twice as likely to attend college and ultimately more likely to earn degrees. Nationally, more than 80% of high schools have provided dual enrollment opportunities, yet only half of Arizona high schools offered them as of last year.
Other state investments have focused on increasing completion of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA. Students who complete the form are 84% more likely to immediately enroll in college, and ABOR has tied scholarships and initiatives to FAFSA completion. Though 44% of Arizona seniors completed the form this year, up about 16% from last year, the state’s completion rate still ranks second to last nationally.
Many of these efforts are worthwhile on their own, experts told AZCIR. But without a clear strategy to connect them, Arizona is unlikely to see the broad enrollment gains officials envisioned.
Some district leaders are building their own coordinated systems to counteract the state’s fragmented approach—and are seeing results.
Santa Cruz County has seen the strongest postsecondary enrollment increases of any Arizona county. In 2016, just under 49% of graduates continued their education. By 2024, the most recent year with county data available, that figure had climbed to almost 60%.
Rio Rico High School, one of the county’s largest schools, saw its postsecondary enrollment rate rise from 44% in 2016 to 52% in 2022. Kayli Muñoz, one of four counselors there, attributed some of that growth to a sustained effort to reach students and families early with information about financial aid and college planning.
Muñoz said she’s noticed students “are very concerned about the money aspect,” including taking out loans. To combat those fears, counselors regularly host information nights and begin discussing scholarships, grants and other aid opportunities long before students start applying to colleges.
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“A lot of our students and a lot of our families just don’t know what’s out there,” she said. “It is a messaging issue.”
Rio Rico’s principal, Dagoberto Lopez, said staffing has also played a crucial role. Through grant funding, the school maintains four counselors for its 1,352 students, a ratio of nearly 340 students per counselor. Though still above the nationally recommended 250:1 ratio, it is much better than Arizona’s statewide ratio of 570:1—the worst in the country.
“With that number of counselors, we can definitely be intentional and strategic about our work,” Lopez said. “Students feel that they can really see their counselor as that resource where they can come and be supported.”
Nearby, the Nogales Unified School District has also seen substantial gains. Between 2016 and 2022, the district’s postsecondary enrollment rate rose from 58% to more than 69%.
Superintendent Angelina Canto said the district’s approach has evolved over time. Early strategies focused on helping students—many of them first-generation college-goers—understand how to apply to college. More recently, the focus has shifted toward helping families navigate the financial barriers.
The district has student ambassadors who serve as peer counselors and answer questions about the application and financial aid processes. It also offers monthly FAFSA information nights, partners with foundations and agencies to connect students with scholarships and works to educate the whole community about the importance of education, not just the students.
Canto hopes state leaders take note of what districts like Nogales have been able to accomplish through sustained outreach and support, and consider additional funding to help other districts enact change.
“I think if we value that role of K-12 more, the more support to get kids successfully educated and into the workforce will only benefit our state,” she said.
